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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2020 21:16:38 GMT -5
I’m not sure if the reaction of the general public is totally to do with doubting the reality. I wonder if some of it is because we have an unprecedented amount of freedom and spare time these days and the reality for most people is to go shopping, to restaurants etc. Not many people have “hobbies” or interests that they do individually so they can’t get their heads around being told to change their lifestyle and become more solitary. Due to my job and location I’ve been isolated from social interaction most of my life, so my reality will hardly alter at all.
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Post by devogirl on Mar 22, 2020 23:14:06 GMT -5
I mean I can link things too, the media being caught inflating numbers or reporters getting caught wearing full hazmat suits when their cameramen are wearing civilian clothes. I mean half of us are bound to get it anyway it's currently in the pandemic phase and if half of us get the sickness it will become an endemic, like H1 N1 it will become a part of our regular flu season. I don't understand why people believe half of the things that are being spewed. I have lost a great deal of respect for all of the people being militant towards me for feeling one sort of way, this thread is a passive aggressive attack towards me. How do I know that you may ask? Because I am the only one who has claimed it is not what it is. You have to understand what I'm saying is not that it doesn't exist, however this fear-mongering will accomplish nothing.
"The media" is not actually a single entity, especially not outside the US where reporting is not driven by American politics. Just because a reporting crew was careless with the health of their camera people doesn't refute the magnitude of the problem. China and Italy have not cratered their economies because the media made people scared. When all major news sources worldwide are reporting the same thing, and the scientific and medical community is in agreement, it's not just hype.
People in Italy watched what happened in China like it was a sci fi movie, thinking "that could never happen here." Now the rest of the world is watching Italy, thinking "surely it won't get that bad here," even while it's already starting in the US. Many people in Italy regret that stricter measures were not imposed more quickly. The problem is that by the time every individual acknowledges the scope of the outbreak in their region, it's already too late.
You say very casually that half the US population will get sick, but if that happens, that means a huge death toll, as well as knock-on effects of people dying because other conditions can't be effectively treated when the medical system is overrun. Yes, in a year (optimistically) or two (more likely) this probably will become like the regular flu, but we're not at that stage right now. There is a vaccine for the flu, which is why death rates are not higher. The UK initially tried to take the strategy of just letting it run its course through the population, but statistical projections of what would happen convinced them that it was a bad idea.
People on the board are understandably upset by your earlier post, where you complained about the inconvenience to your career. Dude, everyone in the whole world is inconvenienced right now. People in that thread very kindly and gently suggested other ways you could continue to be productive. People are also understandably upset about how many people in the US and worldwide are not taking this seriously enough and continuing to spread it. Ordinarily we can say, whatever, you're entitled to your opinion, but the fact that other people's actions puts everyone at risk means this is an emotional topic. So ok, whatever, if you choose to disbelieve the worldwide medical community nothing here will change your mind but it's really not just about you.
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Post by Corey on Mar 22, 2020 23:18:06 GMT -5
I sympathize with people who are out a job during the lockdowns. But as a disable person who probably would struggle fighting off the virus, I am happy and grateful society is reacting the way it is.
And let’s think about this another way. If we are expecting the virus to continue spreading, even after these measures, maybe we are not over-reacting. Maybe we are not doing enough.
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Post by Manda2212 on Mar 23, 2020 0:09:17 GMT -5
Pretty sure sy lives in Canada. Hoping half of us down here don't get this shit thank you very much!
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Post by myrrh on Mar 23, 2020 1:14:26 GMT -5
Pretty sure sy lives in Canada. Hoping half of us down here don't get this shit thank you very much! I don't think there's a way around it, at this point. Resort towns in my state are so full of tourists that they're closing and giving visitors 24 hours to leave town. The DOT is closing areas to dissuade people from going hiking- a friend of mine was at a wilderness trailhead yesterday, and said it was packed. Look at this picture of a park in Seattle, taken this afternoon! i.redd.it/1h0hhfa9y8o41.jpg Washington has the second highest number of coronavirus deaths, behind only New York. That's your neighborhood, that's my neighborhood, that's everybody's neighborhood. It's like if Oprah showed up and gave everyone a new car. Except instead of Oprah, it's belligerent ignorance. And we all get COVID instead of cars.
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Post by myrrh on Mar 23, 2020 1:30:24 GMT -5
To follow up, here's a collection of Italian mayors and governors getting angry over people violating the orders to stay at home. v.redd.it/ow745so99ao41And this is a video from an Italian hospital showing patients laying on the floor in hallways because the overcrowding is so severe. It's just confounding. Apologies for the lack of formatting, I'm on mobile.
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Post by Amee on Mar 23, 2020 8:21:58 GMT -5
I mean I can link things too, the media being caught inflating numbers or reporters getting caught wearing full hazmat suits when their cameramen are wearing civilian clothes. I mean half of us are bound to get it anyway it's currently in the pandemic phase and if half of us get the sickness it will become an endemic, like H1 N1 it will become a part of our regular flu season. I don't understand why people believe half of the things that are being spewed. I have lost a great deal of respect for all of the people being militant towards me for feeling one sort of way, this thread is a passive aggressive attack towards me. How do I know that you may ask? Because I am the only one who has claimed it is not what it is. You have to understand what I'm saying is not that it doesn't exist, however this fear-mongering will accomplish nothing. sy I understand it's not nice when people pile on you attacking your opinion, but I think you should consider that you used some pretty strong language in your original post, saying people are pussified by the media brainwashing them. Are those of us, who believe the situation is urgent and who believe the strict measures taken are sensible and necessary all brainwashed and pussified? I think it's understandable that people react strongly to such a claim. I don't think it should be taboo to voice different opinions about the situation, about what's necessary and about which measures should be taken. I wonder about the severity of the measures too, sometimes. But I'm not a virologist, I haven't studied this virus and I really have no clue about it apart from what I've read and seen in different media. So, why do I believe the things that we're being told? Simple. Because so far, I've found no good reason not to. As far as I can tell the scientific consensus seems to be that: (1) it's more contagious than the flu (2) it's more deadly than the flu and (3) our healthcare systems would be hopelessly overwhelmed, if we just let it spread as quickly as it would unhindered --> (4) that would lead to a huge death toll. That's why (5) we need to take (more or less drastic) measures to slow the spread to prevent (4) from happening. I have no good reason not to believe (1) and (2) and (3)-(5) make perfect logical sense to me. The situation in Northern Italy seems to confirm it. Do you have good reasons not to believe that? What do you think is wrong in this equation? What measures do you think would be adequate or do you think no measures at all should be taken?
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Post by sy on Mar 23, 2020 9:43:19 GMT -5
Shout out to the people who tried to understand my opinion, that is how arguments are meant to be had. I'm not going to speak any further on the subject because I feel like everything I say is being spun into and misconstrued into whatever way people want.
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Post by newjess on Mar 23, 2020 10:23:03 GMT -5
I don't think anyone's doubting it but it is being misrepresented. I kind of agree, in a way. I am I isolation except for work, so I am listening. But I am from a small town of 6,000 and the surrounding area around me has about 3 cases, none in the hospital. Seems a little overboard to make everything close. But i am a rule follower, so I obey. A lot of my coworkers think they've gone overboard also. Several of them think they had this virus a couple months ago, before it was "well known". Yes, I've heard about Italy and China, etc. But if the malaria drug and the antibiotic work as well as France says, we won't have to worry anymore. You are very lucky that your area wasn't hit with an outbreak before social distancing measures were implemented. That is the ideal situation. The whole idea is to reduce the spread You say it seems like they've gone overboard, but all it takes is one person who could be the start of spread to literally hundreds or even thousands of people within a single month, without social distancing. The best thing that can be done is to get ahead of the virus so that it DOESN'T become an outbreak in your area. With social distancing the potential for spread is significantly reduced ETA: This is with a Ro of 3. Note that is on the high end, I've seen estimates between 2 and 3.11. But it illustrates the general idea well. Link here if embedded video not working
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Post by Manda2212 on Mar 23, 2020 11:05:23 GMT -5
Pretty sure sy lives in Canada. Hoping half of us down here don't get this shit thank you very much! I don't think there's a way around it, at this point. Resort towns in my state are so full of tourists that they're closing and giving visitors 24 hours to leave town. The DOT is closing areas to dissuade people from going hiking- a friend of mine was at a wilderness trailhead yesterday, and said it was packed. Look at this picture of a park in Seattle, taken this afternoon! i.redd.it/1h0hhfa9y8o41.jpg Washington has the second highest number of coronavirus deaths, behind only New York. That's your neighborhood, that's my neighborhood, that's everybody's neighborhood. It's like if Oprah showed up and gave everyone a new car. Except instead of Oprah, it's belligerent ignorance. And we all get COVID instead of cars. Well I certainly hope you scolded your friend for contributing to the packed nature of the wilderness trails! I am not sure why you are trying to convince me TBH. I have health specific anxiety and I am taking this more serious than most. I was merely pointing out that sy is from Canada, not the US. I haven't left my property except to food shop for 10 days. However, that sure is a lot of Trump supporting Covid19 doubters for a super liberal place like Washington State!
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Post by pam on Mar 23, 2020 12:21:14 GMT -5
I kind of agree, in a way. I am I isolation except for work, so I am listening. But I am from a small town of 6,000 and the surrounding area around me has about 3 cases, none in the hospital. Seems a little overboard to make everything close. But i am a rule follower, so I obey. A lot of my coworkers think they've gone overboard also. Several of them think they had this virus a couple months ago, before it was "well known". Yes, I've heard about Italy and China, etc. But if the malaria drug and the antibiotic work as well as France says, we won't have to worry anymore. You are very lucky that your area wasn't hit with an outbreak before social distancing measures were implemented. That is the ideal situation. The whole idea is to reduce the spread You say it seems like they've gone overboard, but all it takes is one person who could be the start of spread to literally hundreds or even thousands of people within a single month, without social distancing. The best thing that can be done is to get ahead of the virus so that it DOESN'T become an outbreak in your area. With social distancing the potential for spread is significantly reduced ETA: This is with a Ro of 3. Note that is on the high end, I've seen estimates between 2 and 3.11. But it illustrates the general idea well. Link here if embedded video not working yes, I am very lucky. I do wonder what happens when the mandatory stay at home ends. Suppose people start getting it then. Will we have to stay home again? Will it last six months? A year? Seems like there has to be some limit to this isolation. Like I said earlier, I do think the medicines they are trying out will help, along with a coming vaccine.
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Post by newjess on Mar 23, 2020 12:40:37 GMT -5
pam my understanding is that the point of social distancing is not to stop the spread completely, but to "flatten the curve" of the spread. With social distancing, the exponential potential of the spread is significantly reduced, which means the spread will be slower/flatter, rather than a sharp increase in a short amount of time, which is what overwhelms hospitals/ICUs and leads the medical rationing. The virus will still spread during and after mandatory social distancing, but the hope is that the spread won't be as overwhelming/unmanageable I do hope that a solution (meds, vaccine, etc) is largely implemented soon, but even then, it is beneficial that we are implementing social distancing, so that when/if the treatments do become largely available, the amount of people that need to be treated and the amount of people with potential to continue spreading will have already been significantly reduced (might need to click on image to enlarge)
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Post by darthoso on Mar 23, 2020 13:09:31 GMT -5
I sympathize with people who are out a job during the lockdowns. But as a disable person who probably would struggle fighting off the virus, I am happy and grateful society is reacting the way it is. And let’s think about this another way. If we are expecting the virus to continue spreading, even after these measures, maybe we are not over-reacting. Maybe we are not doing enough. Amen brother. And I agree, at this point we've knee capped the economy, so not going all the way could mean it was for nothing. Demand for business isn't going to go away when this is over, and if Americans have a decent amount of cash after this is over, that'll help. For us who need PCAs this is an awful situation. Do we let them work or lay them off if we can?
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Post by Amee on Mar 23, 2020 14:56:37 GMT -5
pam I've wondered about that too. What newjess has posted is what I've understood we're trying to do, but I also don't completely understand how it will work long-term. Austria has been in full lock-down for a week now and the measures have been prolonged until Easter, which will make it four full weeks of complete lockdown minimum. The plan, as they're telling us right now, is to take the measures back step by step after Easter - should the numbers go down significantly as hoped. Although it may well be that they'll keep strict measures in place longer. Meanwhile, they're trying to ramp up the capacities in the healthcare system. But as you said, I don't know how exactly all of this will work. I'd imagine once they open schools and Universities again, spreading will be much faster and easier again. I don't know what they're planning to re-open and what they're planning to keep closed. Honestly, I don't think they know themselves at this point. What everyone seems to agree on is that this is a problem we will be dealing with for months to come, not weeks. Personally, I really don't envy the people having to make the decisions right now - trying to balance between not completely killing your economy and not letting thousands of people die. It's a lot of guessing and hoping and potentially paying heavily for mistakes either way.
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Post by newjess on Mar 23, 2020 15:44:37 GMT -5
Amee I am not an expert on this, but my understanding is that it's inevitable that the virus will continue to spread, but the main objective is to try and prevent the sudden surge that leads to forced medical rationing. By the time they start easing up on the social distancing, they'll have drastically reduced the exponential growth compared to what it would have been without social distancing, so the spread will be slower. It will still spread, but not like the sudden surge it would have been before. Also, by the time they start easing, we'll also have developed in many crucial ways that will assist in managing the spread: More data, better understanding of the virus and it's behavior, etc Increase in widespread/available testing More people who have already recovered (more immunity) Progress toward a vaccine It seems that basically the only way this ends is with herd immunity. Which will either come from 1) enough people catching it and recovering, or, 2) from vaccinating. Of course option 2 is preferable. This article has a lot of great info about flattening the curve and what the potential timeline of the virus could be before it runs it's course: www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/story/2020-03-15/whats-the-covid-19-end-gameI thought the simulations in this article showing spread with and without social distancing were interesting: www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/I think you are right though that it's hard to tell how long things will need to be locked down or what exactly will happen when they start easing up. I absolutely agree that these are incredibly difficult decisions to make. Hopefully as more data is collected and more testing being conducted, while we're all on lockdown, there will be even more insight and knowledge on the best ways to approach when we do start to return to "normal"
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