I've got a Masters with a Homeland Security component so I can speak with some, some, authority on this. The thing as PWDs to be concerned and ready for isn't the virus itself necessarily, but the government response and downstream effects.
I would have conversations with your PCA teams now if they are willing to stay overnight with you in the event of a lock down order. Given our system of government in the US the response may be uneven and even panicky at the State and Local level, unfortunately the CDC and other federal agencies have limited authority over State and Local Governments. It is entirely possible Governors, Mayors, or even Sheriffs could get jumpy and order a lock downs that could last awhile and it could happen overnight. You may have seen that horrible case in China where a PWD died because his family couldn't get to him because of the government lock down, that could easily happen here.
Start thinking about your supplies, meds, food not only for you but your PCA team. Look into getting an N95 mask if you need them to go on a supply run for you. Write up a short letter for your PCAs to carry detailing the importance of their position and exactly where you live, it could be useful if your PCA is stopped trying to get to you. Finally, have some cash, cash is king. Power, gas, water, and internet shouldn't be impacted.
Good luck everyone
Last Edit: Feb 29, 2020 17:35:22 GMT -5 by darthoso
Good advice! That case in China was really tragic, the brother and father of a guy with CP were quarantined and he died because they were not allowed to return home.
I would add, for anyone who takes any prescription medicine, if you can make sure you have enough for a month or two now, because it might be difficult to get to a pharmacy or get a prescription refilled. You also want to avoid having to go to a doctors office if you're not sick.
Also if your PCA doesn't live with you, maybe look into back up plans if your PCA gets sick or is quarantined in a separate location. As Darthoso said, a lockdown can happen very fast and unpredictably. Part of the problem with COVID-19 is that for the first week it can seem like just a mild cold, so it can be difficult to distinguish between that and a regular cold or flu. So anyone with a cough or fever is advised to stay home just in case, which is increasing the number of sick days people have to take.
I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the virus itself. At the moment if you believe the rubbery figures coming from China it has a 6% mortality rate. It is interesting to watch how it progresses outside China. Italy is a little frightening. I also wonder how countries without universal health care will fare, although it may not matter as hospitals could be overwhelmed.
As a para, I consider myself to be fairly tough, however I am close enough to fifty and am T5 so can't cough properly. I would think I am in a high risk category, as would most of the PWDs on here, we are all a little fragile.
I actually bought 6 months of meds last week, as the last place you want to be is at a pharmacy with sick people. I also got 6 months worth of catheters etc, and if it hits here I am going to a mates 2500 acre farm and shoot and eat kangaroos, maybe even Koalas if it really is the apocalypse. Hahahah
I spoke to my doctor today as I have pretty much zero immune system due to toxic medication. He said there is no need to panic unless you are (mainly) elderly with serious lung/chest problems. Face masks do nothing and the best things is hand washing and avoiding touching your face. At age 80 the death rate is 14.8% at 50/59 it’s 1.3% At 30/39 it’s 0.2% So truthfully I think we have just as much chance of dying from regular flu, sickness, lightening or anything else. Maybe it’s just my mentality but I think just take normal sensible precautions, be prepared with meds etc and carry on living your life.
6% mortality rate would be crazy high. Actually the numbers are more like 2%, and lower in places with better health care. The highest death rates are in men 50 and above and with other medical conditions. The number is likely to go down since a lot of people have mild cases that are not diagnosed and some younger people don't have any symptoms at all. But yes, if have trouble coughing it is a concern.
Wearing a mask will most likely not prevent you from getting sick, but it is helpful to stop people who are already sick from spreading it. So no need to wear a mask when going out but if you live with other people it could be useful to have a few masks on hand if one person at home gets sick. The main way you get infected is by touching your face. The best defense is to wash hands often with soap and water (not sanitizer) and don't touch your face without washing hands first.
The places where it's been spreading the fastest have been in religious communities, churches and mosques. There's less evidence of spread from passing contact like on a bus or at the supermarket. You're much more likely to get it from a close contact than from a stranger. Keep in mind that for the first week symptoms can be very mild, just a sore throat or cough. I would be very careful to stay away from any family or caregiver with even the mildest cold symptoms, even if it's most likely just a regular cold, because there's no way to know until it either goes away or gets worse.
Very solid advice and I wouldn't discount any of it. I would like to remind everyone of one important thing... DON'T PANIC! Not here but in general online I've seen a lot of panic. We survived the 09-10 H1N1 Swine Flu Pandemic, there was a lot of panic during that outbreak too. Most everyone is gonna be fine.
That being said I was at a show last night, some friends were sick, I bought like $40 in cold medicine off Amazon instead of watching the band.
One problem that I see, is that we have such a small dataset outside of China. It may be better or it may be worse. Another issue is that yes, the mortality rate is lower in places with better healthcare, but is this just a result of the tiny number? What will happen when the hospitals start to struggle with numbers, as most western hospitals tend to run at 90% capacity or above (anecdotal)
Italy is very interesting, as the rates have been increasing so rapidly, admittedly again, very early data. 2 weeks ago they had 3 confirmed cases, now 52 deaths and 149 recoveries. The infection rate is so high that I am sure deaths and even more so recoveries will lag way behind until we see a few months of data.
China's figures are low because I think they have lied, but also they are able to quarantine their citizens in a way no western countries will be able to.
I keep wondering if it is as benign as we are being told, then why the travel bans and cancelling of events, it is like the government knows more than they are letting on.
HOWEVER..... You may be perfectly correct and it is killing mostly men over 50........ and what are 95% of politicians
@wonk the mortality rates by age demographic are on www.worldometer I think the over reaction by certain bodies/governments is because politicians are ruled by public opinion. They don’t want to lose points by appearing to not react so take the safer option of over reacting. After all, they need their jobs so they can fiddle expenses and retire early with a massively disproportionate pension to the actual effort they’ve made.
While China has been putting a spin on the numbers, it’s not the only country doing that. Japan’s confirmed rate is low because they haven’t been testing most people. In the US, Trump has already been issuing instructions to downplay infections and his most hard-core supporters are convinced it’s a Dem conspiracy. The US doesn’t even have reliable tests because the CDC has been defunded. The infection rate is almost certainly much higher than reported anywhere because people with mild symptoms are not included. The fatality rate so far is higher than influenza but lower than SARS. I think the US is going to be very hard hit because of the terrible medical system and the culture of “go to work sick.” Having Mike “pray away the gay” Pence in charge will only make it worse. But buying into conspiracy theories won’t help. I don’t think the government knows more than they are letting on, in the US they almost certainly know less than they pretend to. Events are getting canceled because people are panicking, not because of government secrets.
ETA: not to say that cancelations aren’t warranted; it’s probably a good idea, but many event cancelations are being decided by the organizers, not by government decree.
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2020 22:22:02 GMT -5 by devogirl
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics! Where is newjess to ride in on her white horse and save me??
I have been sitting here wondering why no one agrees with me on the mortality rate, so I locked myself in my room away from that nasty virus, and went on a google hunt.
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients."
The American Journal of Epidemiology agrees with me that this is a flawed model, and suggests the same formula that I have been using "deaths/ (deaths + recovered) and calculates the mortality rate at 6%. Of course mild unreported cases will cause this number to be lower.
OK I am happy now that I answered my own question, sorry to have wasted everone's time.
Sorry I wasn’t clear! I didn’t mean it was totally defunded. What I meant was that over time it has not been funded enough, especially research on viral infections, the research funding goes in a boom and bust cycle following outbreaks, rather than being funded consistently. SARS just receded on its own and a vaccine still has not been developed. The fact that the CDC shipped faulty test kits for COVID-19 is a national disgrace, whatever the cause.
The places that have done the best in recent weeks were the hardest hit by SARS in 2003 and put concrete measures in place in advance, while countries in Asia like Japan that did not experience a SARS outbreak didn’t do that, so now they are scrambling.
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2020 22:29:37 GMT -5 by devogirl
Hello there, I'm a Chinese though I don't live in epidemic area. And I want to repeat: People who has chronic disease really should be serious, especially when they need proper medical treatment. I have seen too many miseries on Chinese social network and don't want to see it happen again.