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Post by wonk on Mar 23, 2020 16:08:18 GMT -5
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Post by matisse on Mar 23, 2020 16:14:44 GMT -5
Demand for business isn't going to go away when this is over, and if Americans have a decent amount of cash after this is over, that'll help. Well one is related to the other, and one thing I'm sure of is that most Americans will NOT have a decent amount of cash when this is over, and in fact will be in debt or in some otherwise financially precarious position for a while. You can't yank that much income from from people and have things just bounce back. For us who need PCAs this is an awful situation. Do we let them work or lay them off if we can? My kids are home from school so they could be doing my care like when we are traveling, but I am having my helpers come. For one PCA, I am her only source of income. For the other, about 75%. There is some risk there, but I have good practices already established because being sick (with anything) makes my muscles weaken faster, so being careful has been part of my life for a very long time.
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Post by Amee on Mar 23, 2020 17:09:48 GMT -5
Thanks, that's a really good article! Confirms what had been my doubts about "flattening the curve", although I'm not sure if we have the ability and the will to go to the lengths that China went to, to "stop then restart". Also confirms my fear that it might be a long time before travel within Europe (let alone trans-continental) will go back to anything similar to what it was before. I know that seems like a ridiculous inconvenience to many, but the fact that I'm currently kept by armed police from entering Germany, which has felt like an extension of my own country to me all my life, is still so surreal to me. I have friends and family living in Germany and I wonder when I'd be able to visit them again...
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Post by darthoso on Mar 23, 2020 17:14:06 GMT -5
Demand for business isn't going to go away when this is over, and if Americans have a decent amount of cash after this is over, that'll help. Well one is related to the other, and one thing I'm sure of is that most Americans will NOT have a decent amount of cash when this is over, and in fact will be in debt or in some otherwise financially precarious position for a while. You can't yank that much income from from people and have things just bounce back. This is where you need strong economic supports (like a UBI program) combined with freezes on rent/mortgage payments (extend the lease and loan period) and a freeze on health insurance premiums. Banks, landlords, and insurance carriers can remain operational through zero interest loans. Provide an income and freeze a family's 2 biggest expenses. If a handful of giant large corporations go under because of this (Boeing, American Airlines), I'm okay with that, the demand for those services will result in new startups, potentially many, emerge from the ashes.
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Post by wonk on Mar 23, 2020 17:26:12 GMT -5
Thanks, that's a really good article! Confirms what had been my doubts about "flattening the curve", although I'm not sure if we have the ability and the will to go to the lengths that China went to, to "stop then restart". Also confirms my fear that it might be a long time before travel within Europe (let alone trans-continental) will go back to anything similar to what it was before. I know that seems like a ridiculous inconvenience to many, but the fact that I'm currently kept by armed police from entering Germany, which has felt like an extension of my own country to me all my life, is still so surreal to me. I have friends and family living in Germany and I wonder when I'd be able to visit them again... My concern with the stop then restart method is that the virus can just start to spread again. I think it will interesting to see what happens in China (that's if we get the truth) My friend at the Peter Doherty Institute thinks there should be a vaccine available in 9-10 months. University of Queensland has been testing one (with a virus grown by my friend) since late February
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Post by matisse on Mar 23, 2020 17:33:35 GMT -5
This is where you need strong economic supports (like a UBI program) combined with freezes on rent/mortgage payments (extend the lease and loan period) and a freeze on health insurance premiums. Banks, landlords, and insurance carriers can remain operational through zero interest loans. Provide an income and freeze a family's 2 biggest expenses. If by freeze you mean to waive, then yeah that would help a lot. But if it's just a deferral, then they will still have to pay even though they get no income for those months other than whatever check the government ends up sending. But either way they are still not going to have money to spend and boost the economy.
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Post by Amee on Mar 23, 2020 17:53:51 GMT -5
Thanks, that's a really good article! Confirms what had been my doubts about "flattening the curve", although I'm not sure if we have the ability and the will to go to the lengths that China went to, to "stop then restart". My concern with the stop then restart method is that the virus can just start to spread again. I think it will interesting to see what happens in China (that's if we get the truth) Yes. That's also a concern that - I'm assuming - makes it practically impossible for a small country in the middle of Europe, like my own. I assume we're far too small and inter-dependant to completely lock ourselves in from the rest of Europe for however long it will take to get a vaccine or effective treatment. So unless all of Europe (or at least our immediate neighbours) go for "stop then restart" as well, it's probably not an option for us.
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Post by newjess on Mar 23, 2020 18:31:15 GMT -5
This is really interesting. Are they suggesting that Oz would only accept imports from China during the shutdown? I was a little unclear on that aspect In theory it does seem that 8-12 weeks of full shutdown/closed international borders could be easier to recover from and easier for the gov to tide over than months of "flattening the curve". Though, like you said, it also seems like it could come back easily, especially since a vaccine seems to still be pretty far out. There are definitely downsides to all of the approaches, and limitations, but it does seem like a combination of them could hit many different facets and compensate where others are limited. Though, "stop then restart" seems like it would have to be ALL IN. Like Amee mentioned regarding Europe, I feel like "stop then restart" is probably not feasible for the US at this point. There have been Federal mandates but it's also been largely state level - some states have implemented "stay at home" orders, some have closed non essential business, others still have open restaurants and bars. Overall I feel like the US has been implementing aspects of each endgame. Social distancing, "shutdowns", travel bans, tracking cases. But it's not uniform across the country This NYT article details some "harsh" steps that would need to be taken to stop the pandemic (in the US) at this point: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html It seems like Oz may be in a position to get ahead of many of these things.
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Post by wonk on Mar 23, 2020 18:48:46 GMT -5
Oz would be in a perfect position if it wasn't full of idiots.
A survey yesterday showed 35% of Australians think it is blown out of proportion. Probably the 35% who failed junior high school science and maths
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Post by matisse on Mar 24, 2020 15:51:31 GMT -5
I do wonder what happens when the mandatory stay at home ends. Suppose people start getting it then. Will we have to stay home again? Will it last six months? A year? Seems like there has to be some limit to this isolation. We need to come to terms with the fact that the quarantine will end before the virus does, likely long before. We just can't stay shut down for months on end. tRump is saying to head back to normalcy by Easter. He is a giant turd and doesn't give a shit about anything but his re-election, but I have also been thinking we need to get back to work. Not because of tRump's selfish, despicable reason, but because the shut down is tragic for our most financially vulnerable and will send millions into permanent poverty. It has to end. And I believe it should end sooner rather than later. Why? Because from all that I have seen, while CV19 is sneaky by lasting longer on surfaces and transmitting itself via asymptomatic people, it is still fundamentally a flu and gets you infected when you get it in your eyes or nose. That means we have the ability to severely stop its spread by practicing good hand hygiene. If everyone trained themselves to keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean, the transmission of CV19 would crater. So at some point I feel like people who can't afford to get it or don't want to get it need to exercise personal responsibility and train themselves to diligently, methodically keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean. They cannot rely on the rest of us to lose our jobs and homes and businesses when they have the power to avoid CV19 in most cases (of course if someone coughs or sneezes on you, you're just fucked). What everyone else CAN do is help, but without sacrificing your livelihood. Like by staying home when you're sick. Too many people work when they're sick, or go out to bars, or go to school, or other stuff while being sick. This is how the regular flu spreads.
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Post by Amee on Mar 24, 2020 16:27:07 GMT -5
I do wonder what happens when the mandatory stay at home ends. Suppose people start getting it then. Will we have to stay home again? Will it last six months? A year? Seems like there has to be some limit to this isolation. We need to come to terms with the fact that the quarantine will end before the virus does, likely long before. We just can't stay shut down for months on end. tRump is saying to head back to normalcy by Easter. He is a giant turd and doesn't give a shit about anything but his re-election, but I have also been thinking we need to get back to work. Not because of tRump's selfish, despicable reason, but because the shut down is tragic for our most financially vulnerable and will send millions into permanent poverty. It has to end. And I believe it should end sooner rather than later. Why? Because from all that I have seen, while CV19 is sneaky by lasting longer on surfaces and transmitting itself via asymptomatic people, it is still fundamentally a flu and gets you infected when you get it in your eyes or nose. That means we have the ability to severely stop its spread by practicing good hand hygiene. If everyone trained themselves to keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean, the transmission of CV19 would crater. So at some point I feel like people who can't afford to get it or don't want to get it need to exercise personal responsibility and train themselves to diligently, methodically keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean. They cannot rely on the rest of us to lose our jobs and homes and businesses when they have the power to avoid CV19 in most cases (of course if someone coughs or sneezes on you, you're just fucked). What everyone else CAN do is help, but without sacrificing your livelihood. Like by staying home when you're sick. Too many people work when they're sick, or go out to bars, or go to school, or other stuff while being sick. This is how the regular flu spreads. I share your concerns about the economy, but what I've heard from medical professionals (in my national news) again and again is that the virus's primary way of spreading is via respiratory droplets - coughing, sneezing, but also simply talking. They kept saying that while getting infected through touching surfaces and then your face can happen (and so good hand hygiene is important), it's not the primary way of transmission. I go to work by public transport every day (not currently), because I don't have a car - the metro and trams are packed with people during rush hour. If respiratory droplets are the primary way of transmission, I (and the million people who use public transport with me) do not have the power to avoid getting infected. I'm not saying we should shut down the economy for months (I don't know what the best strategy is), but I doubt it would be as simple as you make it sound. Sure, if everyone, who felt the slightest cough strictly isolated themselves, we could probably reduce/slow transmission significantly. But getting millions of people to change their behaviour through simple recommendations... I think we can all imagine how well that works. And how would you enforce that?
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Post by wonk on Mar 24, 2020 16:58:02 GMT -5
I do wonder what happens when the mandatory stay at home ends. Suppose people start getting it then. Will we have to stay home again? Will it last six months? A year? Seems like there has to be some limit to this isolation. We need to come to terms with the fact that the quarantine will end before the virus does, likely long before. We just can't stay shut down for months on end. tRump is saying to head back to normalcy by Easter. He is a giant turd and doesn't give a shit about anything but his re-election, but I have also been thinking we need to get back to work. Not because of tRump's selfish, despicable reason, but because the shut down is tragic for our most financially vulnerable and will send millions into permanent poverty. It has to end. And I believe it should end sooner rather than later. Why? Because from all that I have seen, while CV19 is sneaky by lasting longer on surfaces and transmitting itself via asymptomatic people, it is still fundamentally a flu and gets you infected when you get it in your eyes or nose. That means we have the ability to severely stop its spread by practicing good hand hygiene. If everyone trained themselves to keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean, the transmission of CV19 would crater. So at some point I feel like people who can't afford to get it or don't want to get it need to exercise personal responsibility and train themselves to diligently, methodically keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean. They cannot rely on the rest of us to lose our jobs and homes and businesses when they have the power to avoid CV19 in most cases (of course if someone coughs or sneezes on you, you're just fucked). What everyone else CAN do is help, but without sacrificing your livelihood. Like by staying home when you're sick. Too many people work when they're sick, or go out to bars, or go to school, or other stuff while being sick. This is how the regular flu spreads. The problem as both newjess and I have tried to point out, is that this is not like the normal flu. The flu has an Ro of 1.3 this is somewhere between 2.5 and 3. 1.3 to the 10th power is 14. 3 to the tenth is over 59,000 Good Hygiene is not going to stop this. A long shutdown will absolutely hurt the economy, whereas a few million dead old and disabled people will probably make the banks happy, and put less of a strain on government coffers
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Post by matisse on Mar 24, 2020 17:13:36 GMT -5
We need to come to terms with the fact that the quarantine will end before the virus does, likely long before. We just can't stay shut down for months on end. tRump is saying to head back to normalcy by Easter. He is a giant turd and doesn't give a shit about anything but his re-election, but I have also been thinking we need to get back to work. Not because of tRump's selfish, despicable reason, but because the shut down is tragic for our most financially vulnerable and will send millions into permanent poverty. It has to end. And I believe it should end sooner rather than later. Why? Because from all that I have seen, while CV19 is sneaky by lasting longer on surfaces and transmitting itself via asymptomatic people, it is still fundamentally a flu and gets you infected when you get it in your eyes or nose. That means we have the ability to severely stop its spread by practicing good hand hygiene. If everyone trained themselves to keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean, the transmission of CV19 would crater. So at some point I feel like people who can't afford to get it or don't want to get it need to exercise personal responsibility and train themselves to diligently, methodically keep their hands away from their eyes and nose unless they KNOW they are clean. They cannot rely on the rest of us to lose our jobs and homes and businesses when they have the power to avoid CV19 in most cases (of course if someone coughs or sneezes on you, you're just fucked). What everyone else CAN do is help, but without sacrificing your livelihood. Like by staying home when you're sick. Too many people work when they're sick, or go out to bars, or go to school, or other stuff while being sick. This is how the regular flu spreads. The problem as both newjess and I have tried to point out, is that this is not like the normal flu. The flu has an Ro of 1.3 this is somewhere between 2.5 and 3. 1.3 to the 10th power is 14. 3 to the tenth is over 59,000 Good Hygiene is not going to stop this. The R0 doesn't exist independently on its own. It is inherently reliant on a number of factors, one of which is our conduct. So we can change it. I get sick once every few years despite being around sick people and participating actively in life activities. If everyone was as paranoid as me about hygiene, the R0 of colds and flus would be shitload less and nowhere near 1.
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Post by wonk on Mar 24, 2020 17:42:06 GMT -5
The problem as both newjess and I have tried to point out, is that this is not like the normal flu. The flu has an Ro of 1.3 this is somewhere between 2.5 and 3. 1.3 to the 10th power is 14. 3 to the tenth is over 59,000 Good Hygiene is not going to stop this. The R0 doesn't exist independently on its own. It is inherently reliant on a number of factors, one of which is our conduct. So we can change it. I get sick once every few years despite being around sick people and participating actively in life activities. If everyone was as paranoid as me about hygiene, the R0 of colds and flus would be shitload less and nowhere near 1.
I am sure you are correct, and since reading your post a few years ago, I have tried with some success to follow your example. However. while colds and flus may drop to less than 1 using this method, I don't think this new virus will. The latest advice is that it is transmissable by being in close proximity, and just talking to someone. I am also sure that good hygiene can lower the risk but not eliminate it. I have thought since very early on that it has a CFR of between 4 and 6% and I have seen noting to dissuade me from this belief, despite what gets reported. The US has approximately 50 million people over 65. If as we are led to believe 60% of the population will get it, then there is potentially 1.8 million deaths over the remainder of the year from this age group. This may be significantly higher. The load that millions of people needing critical care will put on the health system will mean that many younger people will also die. I just can't see how it is wise or prudent to relax social distancing and shutdowns before a vaccine or heard immunity is reached. I am however an engineer and not a doctor or virologist, so everything looks black and white to me
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Post by Deleted on Mar 24, 2020 18:10:18 GMT -5
This is one of the view times where I am generally in agreement with both sides of the argument. @wonk is right that it’s not prudent to relax social distancing and shutdowns but matisse is also right that there is a limit to the time that it’s possible to continue following that advice. Unless we lock down every person in every country until the virus has run its course which sensibly just isn’t possible, then we all need to take personal responsibility for hygiene and public interactions. People have died and will continue to die, probably in unacceptable numbers, and whilst we can do our best to limit the figures in reality life has to continue at some point. I don’t think there is a right or wrong and there is definitely no simple fix.
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