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Post by blueskye101 on Mar 8, 2020 22:51:16 GMT -5
I think here in the states we are getting mixed signals between our president and all others. He says in press conference that anyone can be tested and KellyAnn said to press and the nation that virus is contained. CDC said that people over 60 should not fly but govt disagreed. I agree that we need to use common sense and do whatever we can to not only get sick but to not pass to the next guy. I work with over 80 patients all day so I am not flying ( which I have to do for dr appts, dentist, shopping) for now to protect them mostly. Hopefully amazon can provide what i need 😉
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Post by blueskye101 on Mar 8, 2020 23:48:52 GMT -5
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Post by Manda2212 on Mar 9, 2020 11:26:33 GMT -5
I wanted to post this for a little perspective as I have seen no one discussing it in the news or on here or anywhere really. We have talked about China and Italy and the US but we haven't talked about South Korea. I found this article on Business Insider which reported that South Korea has done much more wide spread testing than any other country and their death rate for people who have contracted Covid-19 is .6%. www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3%3fampThis is still admittedly higher than the seasonal flu mortality rate average. I say average because flu deaths vary year to year. It's still unnerving obviously because it's all new but hopefully this is somewhat comforting. It should follow logic that as more testing happens here we will see the mortality rate shift as well.
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Post by wonk on Mar 9, 2020 13:49:20 GMT -5
There is till so much we don't know. In Korea we don't know which strain of the virus is most prevalent, and many of the cases came from a single person in the Church. Just to be an absolute prick, the mortality rate in South Korea using another methodology is 24.2%, and in Italy is 39%! This of course has the opposite problem to the one used by WHO. The numbers are changing so rapidly that it makes both of these methods wildly inaccurate. The problem is It takes time from catching the virus to becoming symptomatic, then approximately 7 days for people to die, and then a further unknown amount of time to show as recovered. So each set of numbers is lagging behind. When these numbers are growing by something like 20% per day a 1 or 2 week delay skews the numbers. It is also interesting, how people spin it one way or the other. One of the state health ministers a few days ago here said something along these lines: "most of the cases are very mild, with only 3 serious cases so far" There had been 3 deaths, so I would consider them to fairly serious!!
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Post by Manda2212 on Mar 9, 2020 14:37:00 GMT -5
How when there have been 7041 cases found with 44 deaths? What kind of wizard math is that that you used?
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Post by Corey on Mar 9, 2020 14:59:34 GMT -5
How when there have been 7041 cases found with 44 deaths? What kind of wizard math is that that you used? Probably he is dividing deaths by completed cases. Source: I have a degree in Wizard mathematics:P
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Post by Dr. BiPAP Sachin on Mar 9, 2020 16:10:39 GMT -5
I think here in the states we are getting mixed signals between our president and all others. He says in press conference that anyone can be tested and KellyAnn said to press and the nation that virus is contained. CDC said that people over 60 should not fly but govt disagreed. I agree that we need to use common sense and do whatever we can to not only get sick but to not pass to the next guy. I work with over 80 patients all day so I am not flying ( which I have to do for dr appts, dentist, shopping) for now to protect them mostly. Hopefully amazon can provide what i need 😉 Yeah, this administration is a bullshit factory. As a PWD with a highly compromised respiratory and immune system, I'm hunkering down at home with my family taking all necessary common sense precautions. Stay safe, y'all!
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Post by wonk on Mar 9, 2020 16:37:36 GMT -5
How when there have been 7041 cases found with 44 deaths? What kind of wizard math is that that you used? Corey has it absolutely correct. It is probably marginally more valid than the just dividing deaths by cases. That method will be fine when the epedemic is finished. A more accurate way if we know the average length of time from becoming symptomatic is to use that. If we were to say that number is 7 days then we can divide deaths today by cases 7 days ago. ie In Italy 463/2036 = 22.7% !!!!! As you correctly pointed out, this does not take into account unreported and undiagnosed cases. The problem with saying numbers like 0.6 percent (especially on here) is that it can make people less vigilant. I am T5, so have trouble coughing, I think any para with my break or higher, quads and anyone with weakened muscles, needs to be especially careful. I am also on a F1 forum, and quite a common belief among the English F1 fans, is that this will die off in summer, and that the virus can't live over 86f (30C). Warm weather is thought to have slowed SARS. However I hated to burst their bubble as the virus seems to be reacting the same in Sydney as everywhere else, when every second day is 30C+. Also how often does it get above 30c in soggy old England, or worse Scotland? I remember matisse telling us several years ago that he is very conscious not to touch his face, and he seems to avoid most flu. It is advice we can all take
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Post by Manda2212 on Mar 9, 2020 17:16:23 GMT -5
How when there have been 7041 cases found with 44 deaths? What kind of wizard math is that that you used? Corey has it absolutely correct. It is probably marginally more valid than the just dividing deaths by cases. That method will be fine when the epedemic is finished. A more accurate way if we know the average length of time from becoming symptomatic is to use that. If we were to say that number is 7 days then we can divide deaths today by cases 7 days ago. ie In Italy 463/2036 = 22.7% !!!!! As you correctly pointed out, this does not take into account unreported and undiagnosed cases. The problem with saying numbers like 0.6 percent (especially on here) is that it can make people less vigilant. I am T5, so have trouble coughing, I think any para with my break or higher, quads and anyone with weakened muscles, needs to be especially careful. I am also on a F1 forum, and quite a common belief among the English F1 fans, is that this will die off in summer, and that the virus can't live over 86f (30C). Warm weather is thought to have slowed SARS. However I hated to burst their bubble as the virus seems to be reacting the same in Sydney as everywhere else, when every second day is 30C+. Also how often does it get above 30c in soggy old England, or worse Scotland? I remember matisse telling us several years ago that he is very conscious not to touch his face, and he seems to avoid most flu. It is advice we can all take "Especially on here"? I think we are all adults and can take this news as a little glimmer of hope instead of the end all be all. I get it, half of the population in this site is more compromised than most, but it's from a very reputable news source and i didn't pull it out of my ass. I did say for a little perspective and I didn't say these are the absolute correct numbers, NO ONE BE AFRAID. It's great to practice universal precautions like hand washing and such obviously and preaching the need to be safe and smart but causing crazy amounts of fear to take hold isn't helpful either so it's nice that some of the numbers in South Korea, at least initially, are showing things to be at least slightly less dire.
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Post by matisse on Mar 9, 2020 18:02:09 GMT -5
I remember matisse telling us several years ago that he is very conscious not to touch his face, and he seems to avoid most flu. It is advice we can all take It took some effort to train myself but it pays off. It should be a lot easier for people to train themselves right now because of all the awareness, but the most difficult thing is to avoid touching yourself when you're alone. It's easy to feel safe if no one is around, but unless you have made sure to wash then you could still have some germs when you instinctively scratch that itchy eye. I get sick once every few years even with a houseful of kids and even when everyone else in the house gets sick. Unfortunately my time came this year and I did get something, probably the flu. It was really weird though. Very mild for me and our youngest, but it totally bitch-slapped my wife and 2nd son. And then the other 2 kids didn't get it. WTF? That never happens. For this C19, in addition to the odd/unknown incubation and the higher mortality, the other issue is transmission. The clusters suggest this thing transmits a whole lot easier than the regular flu. The US response to me seems an odd combination of (1) irresponsible denial, outright lies, and incompetence from the government, but then (2) over-reaction by lots of people. The virus seems quite dangerous for the elderly and those otherwise at risk, but it took way too long for the government to flat out tell these folks not to cruise. On the other hand, one of my wheeler friends is young but has serious lung issues so she is not leaving her home, but do we really need the companies around here telling their employees to stay home? Salesforce in SF told employees to stay home, that is going to unnecessarily devastate all the coffee shops and lunch places around that area. And then some school sporting events are being canceled. I mean, if school itself is not canceled, why should other school stuff be? Maybe just tell the grandparents to stay home.
For my family, we are just doing our usual thing but being more vigilant about cleanliness. We were out skiing this weekend and went out to dinner and a movie. I have been running all my usual errands, shopping to the mall, and out for lunch just as I had planned. I trained my helpers previously about hand washing so those habits were already in place before this outbreak.
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Post by wonk on Mar 10, 2020 19:13:04 GMT -5
UK health minister tests positive!
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Post by lizzy on Mar 10, 2020 19:52:20 GMT -5
UK health minister tests positive! Yep. It can happen to anyone. She has self isolated. UK still in phase 1: containment phase.
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Post by wonk on Mar 10, 2020 20:10:23 GMT -5
UK health minister tests positive! Yep. It can happen to anyone. She has self isolated. UK still in phase 1: containment phase. Yes same here. I am off to the Melbourne F1 GP tomorrow, so hopefully not too many infected Italians cuddling me lol.
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Post by wonk on Mar 11, 2020 0:21:36 GMT -5
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Post by matisse on Mar 11, 2020 1:03:38 GMT -5
For this C19, in addition to the odd/unknown incubation and the higher mortality, the other issue is transmission. The clusters suggest this thing transmits a whole lot easier than the regular flu. Looks like there is a 4th issue that makes it a lot more dangerous than the flu. It sneaks up on you. Shortness of breath is the key distinguishing trait, but you may not get that until the virus has already been hanging around inside of you for a week. It seems like symptoms can be somewhat mild but then suddenly WHAM, one day labored breathing and then the next pneumonia. Notes from someone attending the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7: So perhaps it's actually not more contagious, it's just that the first week can be mild, so you transmit it before you or other people know you're sick. Perhaps that means that if you stay vigilant at all times, you can avoid it just like you can avoid the regular flu.
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